Florida Voter Registration by party– September 2019
Bottom Line: My theme for the 2020 cycle has been perception vs reality. For example, given the negativity in the news media and meaningless hypothetical head-to-head polls with Democrats, you might think that President Trump is likely to lose next year. He’s still the odds-on favorite by any historical measure at this point in the cycle. Here at home in Florida, there might be a different version of a similar thing. Whether it’s polling or Andrew Gillum’s Democrat voter registration drive, you might think Democrats have been gaining an advantage in our state throughout 2019. It’s the opposite. The monthly voter registration totals are in for Florida from August and continue to show a trend that’s not advantageous for Democrats in our state.
These are Florida voter registration changes by party year over year.
- DEM: –6,305
- GOP: +8,954
- Minor: +22,974
- NPA: +35,021
This continues to paint a clear picture confirming longer term trends in Florida. We’re seeing surges in NPA’s and minor parties with smaller but meaningful increases in Republican voter registration. Also, the longer-term trend of Democrat defections continues to occur. This is even more notable when you consider that these are the changes over a year ago when we were heading into the hotly contested Florida primaries in advance of the general election cycle.
Democrats remain near their lowest registration advantage in Florida’s history. The current breakout of registered voters looks like this...
- DEM: 36.9%
- GOP: 35.1%
- Minor: 1%
- NPA: 26.9%
Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016. That’s down to a 1.8% advantage currently. Historically, Florida’s Democrats haven’t reflected the most progressive wing of the party. The party’s continued leftward bend likely is impacting would be Democrats from registering in the party. TBC...