Florida’s Primary voter turnout entering Election Day
Bottom Line: It’s been a year unlike any other which is leading to an election cycle unlike any other as well. This has included a record number of Floridian’s requesting ballots to vote by mail for the August primaries in advance of the August 18th Election Day. How significant is the difference? Consider that in the August 2018 primaries a total of 1.35 million votes by mail were received by the state. As of today, 2.1+ million votes by mail have been received, dwarfing all previous records. Voting by mail accounts for 79% of all votes cast entering today and Democrats, led by a strong and early vote by mail push have a strong advantage in turnout entering today. Here’s the turnout based on political party:
- Democrat: 48%
- Republican: 39%
- NPA/Other: 13%
Republicans outpaced Democrats in early voting, but with nearly eight in ten votes being placed by mail the edge at the polls was well more than outdone through the mail. If Republicans intend on being competitive in overall turnout, they’ll have to turnout in large numbers today to narrow the gap. To put this in perspective – in the 2016 August Primaries Republicans held an 8% lead over Democrats in votes cast entering Election Day. Democrats currently lead by 9%. That’s a huge 17% swing entering Election Day. In the middle of the pandemic it’s hard to know what the final results will show after all votes are counted from those going to the polls today, but it’s clear Democrats have a lot to feel good about as they’ve attempted to activate their base and new voters in advance of November. Rest assured both parties will be taking stock of all that happens in Florida’s primaries with an eye on strategies to activate voters for November.