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How Many More People Are Likely To Get Vaccinated With Full FDA Approval?
Bottom Line: Large swaths of the country are already vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine. This includes exactly 61% of the US population which is currently vaccinated with at least a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine - that includes Florida where 62.7% have been vaccinated. Currently 14.6% of the US population is under the age of 12, which of course aren’t eligible for vaccinations. This means 77.3% of the eligible American population has been vaccinated with at least a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. That’s a number that’s likely higher than you’ve been conditioned to think is the case. So given that fewer than 23% of Americans eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine haven’t received one, how many of them are likely to be persuaded by the FDA’s full approval of the Pfizer vaccine?
The most comprehensive study conducted on the topic came from the Kaiser Family Foundation. In their recent study 31% of those not vaccinated said they’d be willing to accept a COVID-19 vaccine if the FDA granted full approval to a vaccine. If 22.7% of eligible Americans have yet to be vaccinated – that equates to 6.9% of the US population. I’m not sure whether that’s a number which is as significant as the coverage over it would make it seem, but nevertheless that’d take us to 84.2% of the eligible population being vaccinated should that occur. That’s a number that’s well north of the alleged herd immunity threshold discussed and would actually be among the highest rates in the world.
As always context is key, the rate of vaccinations for our total population sounds as high as it is because of nearly 15% of our population not having a COVID-19 vaccination option. In context, the vaccination rates are relatively strong nationally, and even more so in Florida as our rates above the national average. Over the next week or so we’ll have a good idea of how many people were really just waiting to a full ok from the FDA before obtaining a COVID-19 vaccination as opposed to those who were citing the lack of full authorization as an excuse to not obtain one. Already though, vaccination rates are better than what had been surveyed through the first half of the year.