Q&A of the Day – What are the Odds of a Jury in Trump’s Case not including a Trump Voter?
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Today’s Entry: Hi Brian, I have a thought about Trump’s trial I’d like your thoughts on. We know that a D.C. jury would almost certainly be completely opposed to Trump and would probably convict him of anything he’s charged with. Clearly Trump stands a much better chance of having a fair trial in South Florida with a mixed jury. A lot of the most recent coverage has been about Cannon’s preference about having the case in Ft. Pierce because Trump won there, however it doesn’t seem to me there would be much of a difference with a jury of 12 jurors in any of the potential venues in South Florida. What do you think?
Bottom Line: Your line of thinking is on point in my opinion and also as a matter of fact – I'll illustrate the facts to support your synopsis. Two weeks ago, I touched on this topic in a related Q&A about the differences in prospective jury pools in D.C. and the possible venues for the case to be heard across the Southern District of Florida. As I mentioned at the time: By way of 2020 election results, Fort Lauderdale would be the least favorable location - where Trump won just under 35% of the vote – with the most favorable being Fort Pierce – where Trump won just over half of the vote. A jury of 12 jurors in a location where 95 out of every 100 voters is already against Trump might well be one that’s completely opposed to him politically. A jury of 12 jurors where in even the least favorable jurisdiction – four are likely to have at least previously supported him, presents an entirely different calculous when the defense only needs one juror to stave off convictions. So, to your point, while having 15% more supporters in one location as opposed to another could be significant, in the context of jury construction it’s not as dramatic as it sounds when news outlets report that the other potential courts are in counties which Trump lost and the one where it’s tentatively scheduled to take place is a county he won. I’ll illustrate the point...
Independent of other factors (such as the effectiveness of the defense and prosecution in the jury selection process) here’s how many of the 12 jurors are likely to have supported Donald Trump in the 2020 election by venue:
- Fort Lauderdale: 4
- Fort Pierce: 6
- Miami: 6
- West Palm Beach: 5
A lot of people would probably be surprised to know that a jury trial in the Miami courthouse would likely produce a potential jury pool consisting of just as many previous Trump voters as in Ft. Pierce with an even split between Biden and Trump voters. That’s a narrative buster for those who’ve suggested after the Miami arraignment, that the case was moved to Fort Pierce out of potential political considerations. At this point the most likely explanation is the convenience factor for Judge Aileen Cannon, given that her home court is the Fort Pierce Court. Statistically, if the trial is in Fort Pierce or Miami, the odds of an entire 12-person jury sharing the same political preferences are only two ten-thousandths of a chance. And they’re only slightly greater in West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale.
The point is this, and your inference is correct, there’s little to no chance, provided that the defense and prosecution are competent in the jury selection process (which is a bit of an art), of having anything other than a bi-partisan jury no matter where it’s held in South Florida. That doesn’t guarantee an outcome one way or another – but to the extent that the political calculus continues to be discussed pertaining to a jury pool – that's the practical reality. The key for Trump in this case, to the extent that the politics of a potential jury pool is in play, was simply having it heard outside of Washington D.C., where despite having twelve jurors, the odds of even one having supported Donald Trump would have been under 50%. But given the recent development that the prosecution has sought to delay the start of the case until at least December 11th, we’re a long way away still from the jury selection process.