Q&A of the Day – Are South Florida’s Ocean Temps Hotter Than Usual?
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio I keep coming across stories talking about how hot the ocean is around Florida but I haven’t seen anything for this area. I’m not noticing a difference. Can you look into this?
Bottom Line: The reason you’re likely to have come across this story multiple times and potentially in multiple places is due to an AP story from Monday entitled: Florida in hot water as ocean temperatures rise along with the humidity. It’s common for local news organizations to have content sharing agreements with the Associated Press in place. As a result, when the AP publishes stories, especially when they’re about Florida, they often automatically populate the websites of the local organizations. And this story in particular starts with a rather sensational intro which led to additional coverage by some news reporters. This has included the Washington Post which produced their own story headlined: Florida ocean temperatures at ‘downright shocking’ levels amid heat wave. Quoting the AP story which appears to have been the main catalyst for this topic of conversation: Record global ocean heating has invaded Florida with a vengeance. Water temperatures in the mid-90s are threatening delicate coral reefs, depriving swimmers of cooling dips and adding a bit more ick to the Sunshine State’s already oppressive summer weather. Forecasters are warning of temperatures that with humidity will feel like 110 degrees by week’s end. If that’s not enough, Florida is about to get a dose of dust from Africa’s Saharan desert that’s likely to hurt air quality. Now all of that is true (aside from the opinions expressed anyway – I for one love South Florida’s summers – so, to each their own), including having had our first burst of Saharan dust in South Florida on Monday with more on the way today. And it’s also on the back of the hottest recorded week of global temperatures last week – which only adds to the sensational aspects of the storytelling. But as often is the case, context is key. And it’s a key that’s a bit lacking in the story, given that it came with a headline as all-encompassing as implying that the entire state of Florida is in “hot water”.
The story largely focuses on the Gulf’s temps, and specifically the lower Keys, where water temperatures have recently been monitored to be 4-5 degrees warmer than usual for July – which is a big deal – especially in the context of the area’s coral reefs as were cited in the story. Florida’s reefs around the Keys are at serious risk for coral bleaching occurring this summer which would kill the reefs, and along with them much of the life that’s fostered by them. This has been driven by what has been known as “the heat dome” which has been a mostly stagnant pocket of hot air which sat over Texas and Mexico for weeks and has recently made its way across the Gulf warming waters along the way. It’s also all interconnected with our changing weather patterns from La Nina earlier this year to El Nino right now. Ordinarily El Nino brings cooler water temperatures along with it which could help cool the waters around Florida over time. However, the immediate swing from a La Nina pattern which raises water temperatures straight into El Nino, just as temperatures were rising this year hasn’t provided an opportunity for that effect yet. But what’s happening in Southwest Florida isn’t nearly the same as what’s happening in Southeast Florida.
NOAA has various weather observation points which are monitored across the state. The most central to the Palm Beaches is on the Lake Worth Beach Pier. Since water temperature observations first began in 1981, the lowest water temperature monitored on July 11th was 83 degrees with the highest being 86 degrees. The historic average on that date has been 85 degrees. Yesterday, the water temperature was 86 degrees – matching the high end of the range but only one degree higher than usual which would likely explain why you haven’t noticed a difference. We are seeing temperatures at the high end of our range for this time of year, but we’ve not experienced anything out of the ordinary to date. On that note, and related, we have had one day recently with a record high temperature – last Thursday during the record setting week worldwide - when West Palm Beach clocked in with a high of 97. That was the highest temp ever recorded on July 6th but thankfully it hasn’t been sustained. We’ve yet to see record high water temperatures on our coast and hopefully won’t anytime soon. So, enjoy the water, I will too.