The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – August 2nd
Bottom Line: Three weeks from today we have the first Republican Presidential Primary Debate. With August comes a traditional transition period from the window in which presidential candidates announce their candidacies to the time in which would-be primary voters begin to seriously vet those candidates which often includes a debate process. The Republican presidential primary process this cycle is one unlike any other as the former President of the United States is not only running for president once again but is doing so while under a series of indictments at both state and federal levels. The story to date, in this primary preseason, has been one of Trump’s perceived dominance over the GOP field of candidates by way of national and state polling. And notably, Trump’s lead in national polls is currently the highest it’s been yet in this cycle – that’s prior to whatever the impact of the J6 related indictment might be. As part of this series, I’ll compare the Presidential primary support and momentum of candidates week-to-week using the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for now.
Here’s where we stand three weeks away from the first debate (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 54% (+2%)
- DeSantis: 18% (flat)
- Ramaswamy: 5% (flat)
- Pence: 4% (-1%)
- Haley: 4% (+1%)
- Scott: 3% (flat)
- Christie: 2% (-1%)
All other candidates are polling under 1%. Notably there have been only two gainers over the past week in Trump and Haley with the biggest gainer of all being former President Donald Trump. His commanding lead which is well north of 50%, and that is growing, paints a picture of just how challenging it will be for any contender to be able to knock the front runner off. In terms of potential change catalysts on the horizon in this race. Federal charges pertaining to January 6th and state charges in the case of alleged election interference in Fulton County Georgia. As we’ve seen, Republicans have been more likely to rally around Trump with the previous indictments than they have been to abandon their support of him. Will that continue? The other potential needle mover is the first debate three weeks away. Of note, as of today, Mike Pence still hasn’t officially qualified for the debate, and there’s still a question about whether Donald Trump will choose to take the stage to debate given his commanding lead.