Q&A of the Day – Has Liberalism Peaked with Students?
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Today’s Entry: Hi Brian. Recently there was a story that young men were trending towards the right. Historically there have been political course corrections between generations. With radical leftist ideas like men competing in women's sports and the mainstreaming of transgenderism I’m wondering if we aren’t starting to finally see one of those occurrences. What are your thoughts?
Bottom Line: Your note reminded me of a potential storyline I pointed out in October of 2021 when I said there was “a generational opportunity for Republicans”. As I said at the time... Something huge is happening here. As in Florida but also the country more broadly. I researched President Biden’s approval rating by state. On the one hand the results weren’t terribly surprising to me. Yes, his approval ratings are under water in 14 states he won last year – which is a big number. But then again when your national approval rating is hovering around 40% give or take that’s going to necessarily be the case. The real eye opener is where his approval ratings are worst. Not as in geography but rather demographics. For as long as I’ve studied politics there’s been one consistent truism. The youngest voters are those most likely to support Democrats. Typically, it takes family formation and career development (paying taxes) to open the eyes of the previously idealistic kids. I’ve literally never seen anything to the contrary until now. President Biden’s approval ratings are now worst youngest. Among voters 18-34 his approval rating stands at 35%. That’s four points lower than any other age range. So, what’s changed with the data I presented over the past close to two years? Not much actually. President Biden’s approval rating is still only 35% among voters 18-34 – which remains the lowest of any age range. That’s despite the marketing ploy of the student loan debt forgiveness plans and the open embrace gay pride events at the White House. At the time I pointed this out some listeners suggested the reason President Biden wasn’t performing better among the youngest voters was because of a perception that he hadn’t been liberal enough in his policies. It’s harder to make that same argument now. But still, there’s a difference between young voters disapproving of President Biden the most and a potential move towards the right ideologically. That’s where the research you referenced comes into play in this conversation.
Recently the annual Monitoring the Future survey which collects data on 12th grade boys and girls showed a rare decline in the percentage of both boys and girls who identified as “liberal”. In this year’s findings 30% of 12th-grade girls identify as “liberals” down 1% from a year ago, while just 13% of boys identify as liberals – tying the record low in the survey’s history dating back to 1976. All in we still see that there are still more high school seniors who identify as liberal than conservative, however there’s what appears to be a possible trend suggesting that perhaps “liberalism” has peaked for the next generation of adults. There’s also a huge gap between boys and girls. Currently 10% more 12th grade boys identify as conservatives than liberals, however 18% more girls identify as liberals than conservatives. It’s not usual for more girls to identify as liberals than boys – that's been the case in all but three years of the survey historically. This survey alone doesn’t make the case that there’s a concrete ideological shift occurring, but then again when compared to President Biden’s approval polling, there’s at least some supporting evidence. And it’s not the only supporting evidence of a potential shift.
Tufts University has studied Youth Civic Engagement every election cycle since 1992. Voters between the ages of 18-29 had consistently trended towards the left. In 1994, 1% more young voters broke for Republicans than Democrats, however by the 2018 midterm election cycle, a record 35% more young voters broke for Democrats than Republicans. That was a huge 36% move towards the left in just 24 years as Gen Xer’s gave way to Millennials and then Millennials began to give way to Gen Z voters. The trajectory of the Tufts study closely mirrors the trend of the Monitoring the Future Survey. So, what happened last year in the midterm elections? The youngest voters broke for Democrats by 28%. Still a huge leftist bias, however that was an eight-point swing towards the right over the prior midterm election cycle. And that’s especially notable with abortion being front and center in the midterm elections last year.
On their own the three different data points hint towards a possible shift but aren’t conclusive. We need at least another election cycle and probably two before that type of conclusion might be drawn. They all do point in the same direction however, which suggests that while it’s not a given “liberalism” has peaked, it’s possible. And much of what might happen from here could depend on how the Republican Party responds going forward. As I pointed out nearly two years ago, due to the level of discontent young voters had/have for Joe Biden and Democrats generally – there's a generational opportunity for Republicans if they effectively lead on the issues that matter most to them. Next year’s election cycle might not just be about determining the near-term political future of this country, it could potentially reshape it for a generation.