The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – August 23rd
Bottom Line: Today’s the day the Republican Presidential Primary race enters its second phase with the first Presidential Debate. The GOP primary process this cycle is one unlike any other as the former President of the United States is not only running for president once again but is doing so while under a series of indictments at state and federal levels. Indictments notwithstanding, the story to date has been one of Trump’s domination in the polls over the GOP field of candidates. Notably, Trump’s lead in national polls remains the highest it’s been yet in this cycle in the wake of the four indictments which has likely factored into his decision, along with his refusal to sign a loyalty pledge, to skip not just tonight’s debate in lieu of a prerecorded interview with Tucker Carlson, but apparently all primary debates this cycle.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls currently which also determined where the participating candidates will stand on stage (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 56% (+1)
- DeSantis: 15% (flat)
- Ramaswamy: 7% (+1)
- Pence: 4% (-1)
- Haley: 3% (-1)
- Scott: 3% (flat)
- Christie: 3% (+1)
All other candidates are polling under 1%. Notably two of those candidates, Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum managed to qualify for the debate. With a 41% gap between first and second in this race, one might imagine the candidates on tonight’s debate stage will be looking to put points on the board with memorable performances. A major party candidate leading by as much as former President Donald Trump currently has by the first debate – has never lost a primary contest. Historically we’ve seen the most volatility in primary polling results occur after the first debate as many candidates are seen and heard by the masses for the first time. It will be interesting to check back in a week to see what the results will be. Until next week...