September’s Hurricane History - 2023
Bottom Line: The calendar tells us that we're halfway through hurricane season. The calendar and the timing of tropical systems are two different animals however. As we’re still taking stock of Hurricane Idalia’s impact (and as it remains an active tropical storm), it’s a reminder that we’re in the peak of hurricane season right now. We can take solace in South Florida having once again successfully navigated the first three months of hurricane season free from the impact of hurricanes. It’s been an active season to this point. Last year, entering September, we experienced only three named storms and no hurricanes. This year we’ve already experienced 10 storms (11 if you included the unnamed January subtropical storm which was declared in May by the National Hurricane Center), three of which have become hurricanes including two majors. This year’s season most closely resembles the 2017 hurricane season which produced a total of 17 named storms.
As for September’s hurricane history – it’s notable for two reasons. It's the most active month of hurricane season and the historical peak day of hurricane season is September 10th. Here’s a look at how much of the season is really left by using historical storm activity as a guide.
Since tracking of the Atlantic Hurricane season began in 1851:
- 36% of all tropical storms have formed during September
- 40% of all hurricanes have formed during the month
On average 3.6 tropical storms and 2.5 hurricanes have formed in September. Statistically the calendar says we’re halfway through hurricane season. In terms of historical storm development, if this season is consistent with historical norms, most of the season is ahead of us. Entering September here's what's happened prior to September
- 33% of hurricanes
- 37% of tropical storms
In other words, about 60% of the usual activity happens from this point forward. In happier news, once we cross the mid-point of September, the odds shift the other way quickly. Fingers crossed.