How Iowa Was Won & What It Means For The Rest of The Country - Top 3 Takeaways – January 17th, 2024
- How the race was won. Now that we’re a day removed from the first presidential contest of this uber important election year we’re able to focus on a few themes that are shaping the presidential race. It’s not just that the former and perhaps future President of the United States won Iowa, and that he did it importantly with over 50% of the vote. It’s how Trump won a commanding 30-point victory. Based on the Fox News Voter Analysis results, it was almost all about two issues for voters: illegal immigration and the economy – with illegal immigration even topping the economy for overall importance in the minds of Iowans. In other words, the way the race was won in Iowa was effectively based upon the same issue that Trump won with in 2016. Ending rampant illegal immigration and the need, now eight years later, to finish building the wall. Now, on the one hand, it can seem to be an overreach attempting to broadly infer much of anything based upon Iowa’s Republican caucus goers. After all these are people who in the three previous open nomination processes voted for Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee. Hence why I said in my takeaways yesterday that what happens in Iowa has often stayed in Iowa (which by the way now includes Asa Hutchinson’s campaign in addition to Vivek Ramaswamy’s - someone evidentially reminded him yesterday that he was still technically in the race and so he took corrective action). It’s likely, for example, that the race in New Hampshire takes on a considerably different feel than what we saw in Iowa on Monday night. But here’s the thing. And it’s a considerable thing. Eight years ago, illegal immigration and specifically Trump’s desire to end it, was a winning issue for Trump. Eight years later, and after record millions of illegal immigrants have come across our border, it’s an invasion. Illegal immigrants have been flown and bused into communities clear across the country creating a crisis and crime along the way – it's no longer just an issue for border states. It’s an issue that’s being battled in every state and two of Trump’s related policies are what are desired most, by most. The Trump-era remain in Mexico policy and to finish building the border wall that Joe Biden ended construction of literally on his first day in office. And as for the economy, Trump’s credibility won the day there too with voters. This country had record high employment, record wages and low inflation until the impact of the pandemic. We’ve had ‘Bidenflation and ‘Bidenomics in the three years since. And this is where these issues, and Trump’s credibility on them in the eyes of voters becomes much bigger than the Iowa caucus. In November, this figures to be...
- A choice election. Should the current favorites win, forget Iowa’s Republicans for a minute. Does the average American want the Trump border policy or the Biden border policy? Does the average American want Donald Trump’s economy or Joe Biden’s economy? When you think of it like that the rest of what the implications out of Iowa may have meant really aren’t so complicated. So, about that. Those issues aren’t just about conservative corn pickers. They’re the top to issues right now for most Americans. Gallup’s ongoing study of “The Most Important Problem”, which studies the concerns of all Americans, has most recently found that the top overall issue for the most Americans is now illegal immigration tied with poor government leadership, with the economy third and inflation/cost of living forth. Notably, in Gallup’s 22-year history of the study, the illegal immigration issue had never previously been the top issue and it’s never sampled anywhere near as high as it is today. Twice as many people as a year ago say illegal immigration is the top issue facing the country right now. So, the bottom line is this. What Gallup shows, is effectively what Fox News polled of Iowa’s Republican voters. And with that being the case, given his credibility in the eyes of voters with those issues, Trump’s exceedingly well positioned to win – not just the Republican nomination but the general election led by the same issue that he led with eight years ago.
- Supporting evidence. 32% and 29%. Have any idea what those two numbers represent? They’re the margins Trump lost California by in 2016 and 2020. Here’s another number for you – 16%. Know what that is? That’s Biden’s advantage over Trump in a hypothetical rematch in California right now according to the just released LA Times poll. If illegal immigration and the economy will shape this election in voters’ minds, that should show up in polls in states across the country, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing. The last time a Republican presidential candidate lost California by fewer than 20 points was in 2004. But still, what’s the point in mentioning this poll? If Donald Trump’s deficit in California is effectively half of what it was in 2016 when he won the presidential election, what do you think that will look like elsewhere? Polls cost money so most non-swing states don’t have them this far in advance of a general election. Trump’s regularly been shown with a lead in the swing state polls but this unusual peak into one of the most reliably blue states in the country, and the largest, begins to paint a bigger picture about how the biggest issues are resonating with voters in ways they previously haven’t across the country. And even in states like California where it would take a minor miracle, or perhaps a major one, for Donald Trump or any Republican to win the election in that state, losing well at the top of the ticket could be key to Republicans winning down ticket – including with key House races which could determine congressional control next congress. A lot can and will change before now and November. But what are the odds with, Joe Biden as President of the United States, that the border crisis/illegal immigration and economic issues go away? For those reasons, what the first voters of the 2024 presidential election cycle had stay when they went to vote, may well prove to be similar to the final say of voters across the country come November’s Election Day...with similar results.