Presidential Conspiracy Theories & Econ 101 - Top 3 Takeaways – February 5th, 2024
- Conspiracy theories are almost always just that. Conspiracy theories can be fun. Conspiracy theories can cause problems. Most often though, conspiracy theories turn out to be just that – nothing more than just a conspiracy theory. From Elvis to JFK and the Illuminati it’s been an American pastime sharing and pondering potential explanations to what’s really behind some of the biggest events. A few years back Germany’s Allensbach Institute conducted a multicounty study on conspiracy theories (sampling European countries and the United States). What they found was interesting. Of those studied the most skeptical people when it comes to conspiracy theories are in Germany, where over half, 53%, don’t put any weight in them. The least skeptical people studied are the French. Only 18% of the French discount non-traditional depictions of major events. In the United States – we came down about in the middle. There are more Americans who’re quick to instantly discount conspiracy theories 32%, than there are those who are inclined to naturally believe them - 22%. What that illustrates is that the largest block of Americans, 46% is pragmatic on the matter of conspiratorial explanations. And that’s generally the best place to be. Most conspiracy theories a la Elvis not really being dead are silly. Occasionally a conspiracy theory, a la deep state actors seeking to keep Donald Trump from becoming President of the United States, via a Russian collision hoax are proven to be true. Interestingly, while the social media age has created a proliferation of conspiracy theories that are easily and more widely distributed, a recent study by the National Institutes of Health found that people have actually become more skeptical in the age of social media – not less. In their study, which was conducted on 52 leading conspiracy theories that have been measured overtime, in only 25% of those cases were people more likely to believe them overtime. It’s on that note that I mention why it is that my top takeaway today is about conspiracy theories...
- Joe Biden is almost certain to be the Democrat’s presidential nominee. The belief that someone other than President Biden will be the Democrat’s nominee has become so strong that Biden is only being priced with a 72% chance of being the Democrats nominee and two candidates who aren’t even running for office, any office currently, Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom are the second and third most likely Democrat candidates for president according to the gambling markets – which is notable in that this is where people, 28% who bet on this stuff, are literally putting their money on their conspiracy theories. But the Democrat presidential primary on Saturday tells the bigger story behind what’s almost certain to happen here. Joe Biden sailing through an uncontested Democrat convention. While President Biden’s popularity might be historically low when sampled across the general public, that’s not the case within the party faithful. Interestingly, Biden polled with “only” a 64% advantage heading into the South Carolina primary. He won by 94%. After Biden managed to win the nonparty sanctioned New Hampshire primary by 42% when voters had to write his name on the ballot – it was clear that this primary cycle was being contested in name only. There isn’t any credible challenge to the President of the United States. Moreover, voters aren’t issuing “protest votes” backing one of the existing challengers – or writing for example – Michelle Obama’s name on ballots as a means of expressing their desire for a different candidate. Joe Biden won all 55 of the available delegates in South Carolina, he’ll cleanup again in Nevada tomorrow and he stands to put this race away with pledged delegates quickly and easily. Is it possible that he’d then take all of his delegates into the convention announce he’s not running in the general election and endorse someone else? Yes. Is it probable? I’ll walk you back to my top takeaway today. And here’s what’s even more discounted than the idea that Joe Biden is really just running a primary election so Michelle Obama doesn’t have to. Kamala Harris. How many people think she’ll just get out of the way so Michelle Obama could have it? The fact of the matter is as follows... If anytime between now and January 19th of next year, Joe Biden’s health fails him to the point to where he is no longer able to serve as President of the United States – Kamala Harris would be the president. The position she ran for against Joe Biden in the first place. To assume that she would just get out of the way at a contested convention to hand it to Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom is laying another conspiracy theory on top of the original conspiracy theory. Joe Biden is almost certainly going to be the Democrat’s nominee and Democrat primary voters are making that quite clear at the polls. In the unlikely event Joe decides he can’t go this summer – it's his number 2 that’s the most likely to ascend to become number 1 which is yet another reason why Joe is most likely the Democrat’s nominee. No one on the left wants to run Kamala Harris against Donald Trump in the general.
- Hurts so good. John Mellencamp came to mind with Friday’s jobs report and that’s because the monthly job gains were strong – with 353,000 jobs added, and the wage growth was decent at 4.5% annualized – which importantly is a bit higher than the rate of inflation. But if the economy still doesn’t feel as good to you as the news reporting of it or President Biden’s accounting of it makes it sound – here's why. Due to ‘Bidenflation, you must be making 18% more today than you were three years ago today just to break even. And that’s just it. You probably aren’t. The average American isn’t breaking even. Wage growth over that same time has been 15% (updated with Friday’s labor report information). So yeah... The average American is 3% worse off financially today than the day Joe Biden became President of the United States. Biden’s economy is the kind that just continues to hurt so good.