Two Weeks Later: The Special Prosecutor’s Report & The Impact on the Presidential Race
Bottom Line: Today marks two weeks since Special Prosecutor Robert Hur’s report detailing his investigation into President Biden’s illegally possessed classified documents dropped publicly. The initial headlines seemed favorable for the president as Hur stated he didn’t intend to pursue charges against Joe Biden, however quickly the reasons as to why he decided against pursing prosecution came into focus. Hur opted not to pursue criminal charges against the current president due to his being a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory. Hur went into detail explaining his rationale which included the detailing of the president’s lack of awareness as to when he was vice president or when his son Beau died. In short, the 388-page report didn’t lead to criminal charges against the president only due to the special prosecutor’s belief that Biden isn’t effectively able to stand trial. The report confirmed the concerns of many about the president’s mental competency.
Recently I highlighted how President Biden’s already historically low approval rating appeared to be unchanged, at 41%, based on polling taken after the news of the special prosecutor’s report had hit. While approval polling may be unchanged, what about head-to-head polling of what is currently the most likely November matchup? Currently a potential Biden-Trump rematch looks like this:
- Trump vs. Biden February 5th: Trump +1.9%
- Trump vs. Biden February 22nd: Trump +1.9%
- Betting odds Trump vs. Biden February 5th: Trump +9.8%
- Betting odds Trump vs. Biden February 22nd: Trump +15.6%
This analysis paints a slightly different picture of the potential impact of Special Prosecutor Robert Hur’s report on the presidential race. We’ve not seen any movement in head-to-head polling, which provides an indication of how decided most voters already are in a potential 2020 rematch. Where there’s been significant movement is within the betting odds which are currently showing the largest advantage for the former and perhaps future President of the United States to date within this cycle. Obviously, this is only a snapshot in time well in advance of a general election matchup that may not even happen. However, if the election were today, most indications point in the direction of what would be a rather comfortable Trump victory. For perspective, Biden’s head-to-head polling advantage on Election Day 2020 was 7.4% over Trump.