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Highest presidential debate audience in 20 years:
Bottom Line: Much of what is on my Cheat Sheet today is analysis based on questions received by listeners & readers yesterday. With that in mind let’s get started…
So 67 million viewed the Presidential debate Wednesday night which was easily the highest watched Presidential debate since 1992 (the last three way Presidential Debate featuring Clinton, Bush and Perot). It’s also worth noting that untold millions viewed the debate online.
So what’s the impact of debates on the election historically?...
Impact of debates & commercials in the election cycle:
Bottom Line: Prior to the debate I brought you the information that historically of undecided voters who said that the debates influenced their voting choice, 75% said they made up their mind based on the first debate. But what about all voters (because certainly there could be some voters who actually change their preference based on debates)?
Well, of all factors that influence voters over the past 6 Presidential Election cycles, debates are easily the most influential. 67% of voters have historically said they were at least somewhat influenced by them. What about commercials?
Commercials are the 2nd most influential aspect of Presidential Election cycles but pale in comparison to the debates. 25% of voters over the past 6 cycles say they were influenced by commercials.
All told that does suggest that 92% of voters at least are paying attention to the campaign and while most voters are rather partisan (meaning that most will vote for their party preference without strong consideration for the opposing party candidates), under certain circumstances many voters beyond independents could be influenced to consider both candidates. So what percentage of voters plans to watch the debates?...
Bottom Line: Over the past 6 election cycles 94% of all voters did watch at least one debate. With the momentum clearly in Romney’s camp the next step – the VP debate suddenly becomes that much more important. And well… Let’s just say I think that there is a good chance the Romney – Ryan ticket is likely to maintain its momentum. (Though I’m considering starting a gambling line on the over/under of a Biden expletive).
President Obama's re-election odds*:
Bottom Line: So this one requires a disclaimer… All data used for this report was obtained prior to Wednesday’s debate. Not to mention an extremely odd chance with
President Obama’s avg. approval rating stood at 50% again this week, which with less then 5 weeks to go to the election, historically equals a 79% chance of winning re-election. The data over the next week will be interesting. Stay tuned…
Romney vs. Obama - head to head popular vote total (if the election were held today)*:
Bottom Line: This is the second asterisk related story. Like the President’s approval rating, all number used for this report were from pre-debate samples. The average this week showed President Obama leading Mitt Romney 49.1 to 46. Undecided voters were down to just 4.9% this week which is a new low for the cycle. Still 75% of undecided voters historically break for the challenger which means… if the election were held based on these numbers (without 3rd party consideration) President Obama would win 50.4 to 49.6. That underscores just how far small swings in momentum could swing this race.
If you're into high Tech perhaps it's time to take a ride on the Choo-Choo:
Bottom Line: So if you’re a technology business professional you may choose to set your sites just a little east of