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CPI 2012 - just how much more we're paying for stuff:

Bottom Line:  The number from which inflation is derived is the CPI (Consumer Price Index).  There are two types of numbers reported with CPI, core and ex food and energy.  For the purposes of cost of living adjustments the Federal Government has decided to use the core number which factors the cost of goods excluding food and energy.  That number will end up being between 1-2% this year which will influence Social Security cost of living adjustments (more on that topic in a minute).  The core number is just fine provided that you’ve managed to not consume food or energy.  Since we’re human and require some of both the core number isn’t applicable to any of us.  The real number that factors total cost of living is what matters. 

The better news is with actual CPI at 3.2% this year it’s within historical norms.  The bad news is that economic growth has averaged 1.7% over the same period – meaning that the cost of living is still slipping away from the average American (and especially those who are on fixed incomes tied in part to Social Security).

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-and-annual-percent-changes-from-1913-to-2008/

 

Social Security benefits to rise less than inflation for 2013:

Bottom Line:  I started with the cost of living overview to put the Social Security cost of living adjustment in perspective.  The estimate for the 2013 cost of living adjustment for Social Security is out.  The good news…  There will be a cost of living adjustment.  The bad news…  It once again won’t be big enough to keep up with trailing inflation. 

The likely 2013 increase will be 1.5-1.7%.  With the average inflation rate so far this year at over 3%, this once again means those relying on S.S. to find their relative standard of living in decline. 

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/09/news/economy/social-security-benefits/index.html

 

Economists go where I refuse to - into 2013: 

Bottom Line:  There are so many different implications to the economy for next year I have refused to try to protect forward because it’s akin to doing you know what in the wind and much of it involves the fiscal cliff.  What will the outcome of the elections look like?  What will the current politicians do after the elections based on the outcome?  If we go over the cliff will the new Congress (and possibly new President) do something in late January or February? Etc…

Yet the mainstream economists are venturing into 2013 prognosticating (using what models – I can only imagine) and have created a vision of 2013 that isn’t great but is actually a little better than 2012. 

Economists believe on average the economy will grow in the mid 2% range next year which is better than the 1.7% we’ve averaged so far in 2012.  On the, not as positive side, the show unemployed over 8% on average next year but generally improving by the end of next year. 

Given that I’m not willing to dabble in next year’s economy myself, I’m interested in the point of view from the traditional economist more than I usually am.  My instinct tells me they are making a political calculation that the fiscal cliff will be averted before January but that President Obama and his agenda is re-elected (I think growth projections would be higher factoring in a Romney win). 

http://news.yahoo.com/poll-economists-foresee-weak-improving-growth-040228293--finance.html

 

Who is better for our future - literally - tech execs weigh in:

Bottom Line:  Since I ended the last story on a political note, I’ll pick up on that notion here.  Traditionally tech execs have leaded left politically.  The reasons can vary but the following is generally true...Techonology execs and innovators are generally highly creative people.  Creative people tend to be left leaning socially and hence support for Democratic candidates generally.

In the 2008 technology executives said that Barrack Obama would be better for the future of technology by a 60% - 40% margin.  That’s rather typical of what we’ve seen over the previous 30 years.  That’s why this election’s survey is somewhat news worthy.

This year’s survey shows 64% of technology executives viewing Mitt Romney as the best choice for the future of technology in this country.  That should be a big signal for those on the fence politically to take seriously.  If much of the growth in this country will come from technology and innovation, and if the people running these companies have changed their traditional political perspective, that should be a loud and clear message about just how poor the business climate is these days.

http://mashable.com/2012/10/08/obama-romney-tech-industry/

 

The price of the iPad Mini has been leaked:

Bottom Line:  So the iPad Mini hasn’t been officially announced (though I’ve told you it was coming for months).  The announcement will happen within the next week & a half and now we may know the price of the Mini once available.

The coding for the future tablet pulled up a price of 249 Euros in computers overseas.  That results in a price of $322 in U.S. dollars.  That could go one of two likely ways.  The iPad Mini will likely be either $299 or $349 (I think the later may be most likely).  If you’re looking at a less expensive tablet (The Google Nexus, any of the Kindle Fire’s or other tablets) this will likely be the way to go because not only did Apple invent the tablet – they have by far – the most satisfied users (89% to 64% for the next best) of the tablets sold and used.

http://gigaom.com/apple/ipad-mini-models-pricing-reportedly-leaked/

 

E-Book check is in the mail for Kindle users:

Bottom Line:  So a settlement in early September will mean cash for many Kindle users over the previous 2.5 years.  The major publishers and Amazon settled with the Government over alleged price fixing in eBooks.  The result is that users will be refunded 30 cents to $1.32 per eBook from the affected publishing companies.  Those that are eligible would be those who bought eBooks from April 2010 through May of 2012.  For active eBook readers on a Kindle, the total could be relatively significant.  Don’t ignore the notification from Amazon if you’re a Kindle user.  Claim your cash.  Info about how in the link below.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/10/amazon-to-customers-three-publishers-settled-antitrust-suit-expect-refund/