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The real political outcome of the shutdown - by the numbers:
Bottom Line: A recent Cheat Sheet theme has been that conventional wisdom isn’t wise. It applies to the actual outcome politically of the partial Government shutdown.
I think it’s safe to say that neither side looked good in the standoff but the media certainly has been successful in projecting the narrative that Republicans were far more damaged during the shutdown. The data that was being measured was scarce. I’ve seen two polls directly related to the political outcome (one from NBC and the other from
So the President is just slightly more approved of today (.7%). So what about those Republicans that theoretically did a great deal of damage to their brand? The average generic ballot question – who would you vote for today? A Democrat or a Republican?
So Republicans actually fare a half point better against Democrats today than prior to the shutdown. It’s also worth noting that on Election Day 2012 the reading was Democrat +8. So… In reality there appears to be no actual political difference as a result of the shutdown and if anything it would seem to slightly benefit the President and Republicans, which would mean that Congressional Democrats would be the losers according to actual analytics… Just don’t tell the media (not that it would matter).
Home flipping is down - except in this red hot space:
Bottom Line: It’s the other naughty word with an F. At least for some who were negatively impacted by the housing bust. Flipping today isn’t what it was from 2003-2006 anyway but if you’re one that gets nervous when hearing about frequent home flipping you’ll like this information.
As home prices have risen this year, flipping activity has been dropping. That’s another cog in the housing puzzle that should indicate that we won’t repeat the sins of the past. All told home flipping is down 13% nationwide according to RealtyTrac. There is one red hot segment of the home flipping market though. The luxury flip.
So the luxury flip is high risk but as you can see it’s high reward as well. It’s worth noting that with regard to real-estate transactions; net profit is often significantly lower than profits in other investments.
Bottom Line: The folks at
Many would look at the 7-0 start by the Kansas City Chiefs this year as a huge surprise but
…So if your team is down right now… There really is always next year. Here is the complete report: http://247wallst.com/special-report/2013/10/17/the-nfls-greatest-comeback-teams/
Art, Autos, Alcohol - the 3 new A'S of investing:
Bottom Line: Earlier this year I shared a story regarding the top overall investments of the last ten years (for ROI). Number 1 were automobiles yielding a near 400% return for collector cars. Also in the top three – fine art - with a greater than 300% return. Add a third A, for alcohol.
You may have heard the stories from auction houses with regard to seriously premium booze going for tens of thousands of dollars. As it turns out it Alcohol is also enjoying triple digit returns over the past ten years as well. It’s joining the other two A’s of investing as a legit investment vehicle for those looking to diversify their investments beyond the traditional investment classes.
Bottom line: So the final number of furloughed Federal Employees totaled about 400,000. Of those who were furloughed about 20% of them did file for unemployment benefits during the shutdown. While they’re supposed to pay whatever they have or will receive back because they were paid in full for their furloughed time (just as in all previous 17 partial Government shutdowns), some states are considering injecting their own politics into the mix.
Several states are considering not pursuing repayment of benefits.
Fast and furious- economic style:
Bottom Line: This week will feature:
And that’s just a piece of the story. In other words, this week has the potential to be the most volatile for the financial markets in quite some time as we make up for lost time with a great deal of data.
The outlook for holiday hiring just improved & where the biggest growth will be:
Bottom Line: If you’re looking for seasonal employment or perhaps seasonal employment that leads to a permanent job, this is better news.
Career builder just released an updated holiday hiring report (backed by Harris Interactive analytics). The key takeaway:
With the noise out of DC quieting down we’re seeing business activity pick up. Happy holidays may be in store for stores yet…
Number of ACA complemented applications according to the Feds:
Bottom Line: So seven million people need to sign up for insurance on the exchanges to sustain them according the Department of Health and Human Services. So how many have signed up for insurance thus far? We don’t know because the Feds haven’t released that number yet. The number they have released? The number of applications they’ve received and that number is… 476,000.